Market Insights

For intermediate- to longer-term investors, it might be propitious to take a position in a gold ETF before the seasonal strength for gold starts in July. Looking at the short-term for gold ETFs, the June break-down, particularly with the gap lower, suggests bearish tendencies. [more]

The Top-Ten Dividend Yield Portfolio is designed with a longer-term perspective. As such, we will update it every two weeks, using Friday’s closing prices. Essentially, it will be a Buy-and-Hold portfolio, with minimal trading involved. The Portfolio will be appropriately invested but, if circumstances warrant, there could be a sizable cash component. The Portfolio was initiated on June 1, 2021 with a full complement of ten stocks. The initial investment, at inception, was $500,000. [more]

We have updated our Seasonality Chart (presented at the end of this report) and made significant changes, including updating the beginning-and-end dates for the periods of seasonality strength, and adding a further ten industry sectors. We remain cautious towards the market and recommend defensive positions. Given the recent strong upward movements in stock prices, we would welcome over the summer months a lengthy consolidation period or a meaningful, but healthy, pull-back. [more]

Despite historical evidence of market weakness and, equally, despite market indexes being at or near all-time highs, it is difficult to fight the tape and embrace the well-recognized, widely-followed adage “Sell in May, and Go Away”. However, investors should be very cautious at this point in the cycle. [more]

With the seasonality strength of thirteen indexes/sectors coming to an end in April, it may be prudent for investors to trim their positions before the market enters its traditional weak period of May through September. [more]

There are a lot of unusual factors at play in the market right now, many of which have never been seen before. That is why it is increasingly important to “keep your eye on the ball”, and use all of the investment tools available to you, including seasonality influences. [more]

Portfolio performance is often top-of-mind at the beginning of a new year. A key to profitable portfolio performance can be gained by assessing the market’s seasonality trends. This report highlights what indexes/sectors are currently going-in/going-out of expected strength in January. [more]

The market is in its typical seasonal period of strength. November was strong and December is off to a great start. The year-end rally is upon us. Do not fight the tape. But know that there will someday be a reckoning. But by how much and when …? [more]