Calafia Beach Pundit

Net Worth and Risk Aversion

The net worth of U.S. households continues to increase while, at the same time, households’ leverage continues to decline. What this means is that U.S. households’ asset values are rising at the same time that risk aversion continues strong. This is a relatively healthy situation. [more]

Analyst Articles

RASI: Market Outlook Still Negative; Trend Flattens

The RASI has shown some strength in the last few days. It has stopped its downward trend, at least for now, and is set to try and rally above two critical resistance levels given by the current down-trend line at about 490 and the critical 500 level that measures positive or negative market expectations. [more]

Analyst Articles

Cannabis Deals Gone Bad

A big merger terminated, an IPO delayed and the first cannabis ETF down almost 60% in share price this past year, has the bloom fallen off the cannabis flower? [more]

Hong Kong Streetscape
Project Syndicate

China’s Hong Kong Problem

The last Governor of Hong Kong, Christopher Patten, has written an article, dated September 30, 2019, for Project Syndicate discussing China’s ongoing problem with the Hong Kong protesters. He thinks that, if China’s leaders were more sophisticated, they would act differently. [more]

recession-barometer-20-new
Economic Insights

U.S. Recession Barometer: Reading Stuck At 9.0X

Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]